Oil prices could go even higher if OPEC+ sticks to production cuts

Oil prices surged around 20% since late June and might climb further this year if the OPEC+ alliance maintains its production limits.

LONDON — Oil prices have soared about 20 per cent since late June but they could go even higher this year if the OPEC+ alliance sticks to its policy of restraining crude production, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, a media report said.

In April, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus allies including Russia had pledged to slash output by more than 1.6 million barrels a day through the end of the year in a bid to lift falling oil prices, CNN reported.

This was followed in July by the announcement of additional cuts by Saudi Arabia — the world’s biggest exporter of crude oil — and an extension of the OPEC+ targets through the end of 2024.

The combined cuts, together with higher demand for oil, have already forced a sharp drawdown of reserves, the IEA said in its monthly oil market report, CNN reported.

If OPEC+ maintains its current production targets, oil inventories could shrink by 2.2 million barrels per day in the third quarter and by 1.2 million barrels in the fourth, “with a risk of driving prices still higher,” the agency wrote.

The IEA reiterated its previous forecast that global oil demand will rise by an average of 2.2 million barrels per day this year to a record 102.2 million barrels per day.

The upward pressure on oil prices could ease next year. The IEA predicts that demand growth will slow to 1 million barrels per day in 2024 as the post-pandemic recovery will have “largely run its course and as the energy transition gathers pace”, CNN reported.

Also read: Oil prices up in July by 16 per cent; highest since Jan 22