Can the Naga Economy be Energy Independent: A Perspective

It is a universal fact that energy (fuel or electricity) is the engine that drives and propels an economy towards growth and progress. Without energy, economic development does not take off. For a society to thrive and sustain, energy sufficiency and self-reliance comes first. Other things follow subsequently. Without achieving a self-sustaining and propelling economy, no amount of job, department or district creation etc. will cure the ailments that plague our society specially unemployment. Without creating avenues for economic activities and income generation through industrialisation, all other efforts towards modernisation become futile and short lived.

Looking at the present energy consumption pattern in Nagaland (i.e. demand and supply for petrol, diesel, gas and electricity etc.), the answer to the subject question is a ‘NO’, because as in the past and present, we rely 100 percent on other states for supply of our basic energy needs. Our energy consumption for different forms of petroleum products was 172 Thousand Metric Tonnes (TMT) in 2020 compared to 154 TMT in the previous year (where 1000 Kg equals 01 Metric Tonne). Going by the present trend, we will have to continue being dependent on other states because we still do not have the infrastructure to produce energy even though we may have the resources to do so.

Nagaland (with a current estimated population of approximately 41.14 lakh) will literally go dry and come to a standstill if the fuel energy supply lines for essential petroleum products and commodities are cut off. Statistics reveal that there are approximately 94 retail outlets of petroleum products. Active LPG customers numbering 2, 46,597 in 2019 have increased to 2, 64,534 customers in 2020. These consumers are served by 81 LPG distributors in 2020 compared to 78 in 2019. All these distributors, dealers and outlets of petroleum products feed on supplies that come from outside of Nagaland (data is indicative only).

Any change in energy fuel rates lead to a series of spiralling effect such as hike in transportation costs leading to increase in price of almost all household commodities. We are aware of the fuel price hike which as of today is hovering around INR 96 per litre for petrol and INR 87 per litre for diesel on which we have no control. The common man (as always) will continue to bear the brunt of rising price which impacts his livelihood. Then comes the load shedding and power cuts that have become almost regular. Some may think that this situation can be overcome by running Generator sets which again run on diesel. Our growing dependence on other states is rendering us into a weak unproductive economy…not by choice but for not wanting to think outside of the box.

A major reason can be attributed to the indifference, inaction, and complacency of not raising a common voice on vital issues at appropriate levels of authorities. The present young Naga generation ought to realise that we are not self-sufficient in terms of energy generation. I also wonder why Nagas are not utilising the rich oil mineral resources when we can. What is holding us back from getting into the process of industrialisation? Why can’t we have our own gas-based electricity generation power plants and set up oil refineries that will produce petroleum products from within Nagaland? Every right-thinking Naga ought to ponder over what we are inheriting (or contributing) today in terms of economic activity to hand over to the next generation.

To quote James E. Faust, the famous American religious leader, lawyer and politician who once said, “Some of our important choices have a timeline. If we delay a decision, the opportunity is lost forever.” This statement very aptly applies to the Nagas at this juncture. It is high time for us to wake up from the slumber of complacency and wake up to the fact that Nagaland today needs an industry that feeds on its own natural mineral resource which is manned by its own human resource.

The scope for hydrocarbon exploration and production in Nagaland (which has been lying dormant for decades now) is an opportunity at hand. Nagas have not been able to take advantage of this opportunity because of manmade geopolitical issues on the surface. However as mentioned earlier, if we delay our action, this opportunity will also slip away. Going by what is emerging in the energy sector of neighbouring nations and countries, crude oil and natural gas is slowly losing out its value and worth.

Geologically, Nagaland is rated to be very promising for hydrocarbon exploration as it falls within the Naga-Schuppen Belt of the prolific Assam Arakan Basin (Category-A basin). Naga-Schuppen Belt is considered as a main source area for hydrocarbon generation which till today has been charging major oil and gas producing fields in the neighbouring states. Recent hydrocarbon re-assessment carried out by the Govt. of India has estimated that this prolific Assam Arakan Basin has 1633 Million Metric Tonnes of oil equivalent (MMTOE) to be in place out of which only 178 MMTOE has been discovered so far i.e. only 11%.

The big question now is where are the rest 89 % of yet-to-find oil (YTF)? Is it in the reservoirs of Nagaland, Assam or Arunachal Pradesh? How much of hydrocarbon resources are in place in Nagaland? Some estimate it to be 600 million tonnes. However, in no certain terms can anyone say with precision unless a systematic oil exploration activity is carried out by an oil and gas Company of repute. So far, we know that ONGC had gone for exploratory drilling operations and carried out seismic surveys covering 602 Line km for 2D Seismic survey and 06 square km for 3D survey during the 70s in and around Wokha, Chumukedima and Dimapur districts. The rest of Nagaland remains unexplored till date devoid of any systematic scientific study and geological & geophysical (G&G) data and information.

In such a scenario, will it not be prudent for the Nagas and Nagaland government to allow National oil Companies (NOC) who are willing to come and carry out such oil exploration campaigns for the Nagas at no cost to the State Government? They will ascertain how much hydrocarbon we have in our basket and where it lies. We will get to know the volume and its worth. Such an action will also immediately lead to bustling economic activities like development of huge infrastructure in the form of roads, bridges and electricity. Manpower will need to be engaged for skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled works. There will be contracts for material supply, services which will benefit the Nagas only. Royalty or revenue will accrue to all stakeholders (individual, village, society and the state government). The oil and gas business is a long-term venture that will usher in growth, prosperity and progress to the people of Nagaland. The oil and gas industry usually has a lifespan of over a hundred years with the capability of generating employment to absorb hundreds of unemployed youths across all spectrum of work. Towards this, the oil townships of Digboi and Duliajan in Upper Assam are living thriving examples for anyone to come and see anytime.

Today, we need mass-based civil societies, tribal Hohos, student bodies, political parties (beyond party lines) and public at large to understand the urgency and need of the hour. It is time for us to come out collectively and push for early utilisation of mineral resources before time runs out and the opportunity lost forever.

To me, our independence will be the day when we are economically liberated from the bondage of unemployment. Our independence will be the day when we are able to sustain the State economy without depending on other States and without having to run to Central government for financial assistance and funding. Our independence will be the day when we have our own power grids that generate electricity to run our very own state-owned oil refinery to produce petroleum products.

However, as mentioned before, this option comes with a timeline. Our indecision today will render oil and gas mineral resources as redundant very soon. Who will then be blamed? Let us be reminded that every economic activity goes through a systematic process of growth. So, the faster we get into the process, the sooner we will be there … AN ENERGY INDEPENDENT STATE. This strategic option if taken will indeed be our way forward into the future.

Meyabi A. Niphi

The author is a concerned Naga crusading for early resumption of oil exploration activities in Nagaland to tide over plaguing issues of unemployment and reducing energy dependency on other States. He works for a national oil company (NOC).