UNCTAD forecasts India’s GDP growth at 6.5 pc in 2024

NEW DELHI — The latest UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report released on Tuesday forecasts global economic growth at 2.6 per cent in 2024 barely above the 2.5 per cent threshold commonly associated with a recessionary phase.

However, amid the gloomy global scenario, it states that India’s economy is buoyed by strong public investment and service sector growth, with a forecasted expansion of 6.5 per cent in 2024.

The report states that in Europe, countries like Germany and Italy are struggling with weak economic activity and facing industrial slowdowns and fiscal constraints, impacting their growth projections.

As far as the Americas are concerned, growth is expected to slow, with Argentina facing severe inflation, and Brazil’s economic momentum dampened by external pressures and reliance on commodities. North America remains relatively resilient, though challenges continue.

Africa is projected to grow at 3.0 per cent in 2024, up slightly from 2.9 per cent in 2023. Armed conflicts and climate impacts pose significant challenges in several countries.

Meanwhile, the continent’s largest economies – Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa – are underperforming, affecting overall prospects.

Growth in the Oceania region, particularly in Australia, is expected to remain subdued, with the low-growth period extending into 2024.

The report also observes that in 2023, global merchandise trade fell by about 1 per cent in real terms, marking a significant divergence from overall economic growth.

The contraction was partly due to trade tensions among some large economies and subdued global demand.

Over the last six months, disruptions in key shipping routes, such as the severe drought affecting the Panama Canal and attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, have strained merchandise trade further and significantly increased shipping costs, the report points out.