[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he BJP has been breathing the heady air of ‘victory’ since the historic results of the 16th Lok Sabha polls on May 16 strongly installing the BJP led NDA alliance with 304 out of 543 seats in the Parliament.
The “dance of democracy” will culminate in the swearing in on Monday, May 26, of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. All the preparations for the swearing in ceremony indicate that this is going to be a grand function and with the humiliating drubbing that the Congress received at the polls, the event will signal to the nation the end of the Nehruvian era and the beginning of another chapter in the history of India.
Whether this will be the Modi Times is too early to judge, for the simple reason that while Modi may have governed Gujarat he has little experience of the politics of being a Member of Parliament.
And governing a country as opposed to a state is going to be a very different game. This despite the overwhelming majority by which the BJP rode into the centre, Modi’s decision to invite Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa . Moreover the degree of control that Modi has experienced over Gujarat as its Chief Minister is one that he may not wield in same measure especially in states where the BJP’s presence is nil.The Southern states where BJP’s performance nationwide was the least impressive are already signs of dissent over the decision by Modi to invite Pakistan’s Nwaz Sharif and Sri Lankan President Rajapaksa.
The outright refusal by Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK to attend the swearing in ceremony of the Prime Minister due to the invite extended to Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa to attend the function is an indicator of just how challenging Modi’s foreign policy will turn out to be.
There is reportedly tension between BJP and Shiv Sena over who will be the next Maharashtra Chief Minister. This in addition to the BJP and Shiv Sena finding themselves taking contradictory positions over the invite to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
With Shiv Sena workers putting up posters in Mumbai which say “Dilli mein Modi sarkar, Mumbai mein Uddhav sarkar”, many wondered if this was a signal that a Thackeray would take up an official post for the first time. This could upset the BJP’s plans of projecting senior OBC leader Gopinath Munde as the chief ministerial candidate which is why he may not get a cabinet berth at the Centre. The BJP meanwhile has already announced that Mr Munde will lead the party in the state elections.
The Sena is, however, insisting on the formula where it remains the senior partner in state polls while the BJP is the senior partner in Lok Sabha election.
The BJP-Shiv Sena combine won 42 out of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats, decimating the Congress-NCP alliance which could only win six seats
Meanwhile in addition to Tamil Nadu’s Jayalalithaa’s ‘no show’ at the ‘mother of all prime ministerial swearing -in’ in the fore court of the Parliament Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah and Kerala CM Oommen Chandy who also had invitations to attend the ceremony, have decided not to attend the programme.
Ms Jayalalithaa, is said to share a good rapport with Mr Modi, but will be sending any representative from her party,either to the function. On Friday, the Tamil Nadu chief minister had described as “unfortunate” the invite to Mr Rajapaksa. She said the to the Lankan president has “deeply upset the people of Tamil Nadu and wounded their sentiments,” . Ms Jayalalithaa had also in a statement, added “Particularly, with regard to the relationship of the new Central Government with the Government of Tamil Nadu, it would have been better if this ill-advised move had been avoided.” While campaigning for the general elections, Mr Modi and Ms Jayalalithaa had attacked each other politically, but after each posted a spectacular win - Mr Modi nationally and Ms Jayalalithaa in her state - they had exchanged warm greetings, congratulating each other.
In the past both have attended the other’s oath ceremonies as chief ministers.
Most political parties in Tamil Nadu allege that civilian casualties and human rights violations against Tamils peaked during the last leg of the war against the LTTE with Mr Rajapaksa in charge. The BJP’s own ally, the MDMK, said Mr Rajapaksa’s presence in the oath ceremony will hurt the feelings of the Tamil people. The DMK, headed by M Karunanidhi, said Mr Modi could have “avoided” inviting the Sri Lankan President and also that the Prime Minister should “understand the feelings” of the people of Tamil Nadu.
It is a very sensitive political issue in Tamil Nadu, where assembly elections are due in 2016 and not surprising then that Jayalalithaa’s political expediency is probably pushing her to make take the stand that she has taken.
So while all eyes will be geared on the lavish and grand function on Monday the real test for Modi Times will kick in when the euphoria over the almost surreal situation the BJP finds itself in settles down.
The task of addressing the fearful “ inflation” egged on by the predicted failing monsoon, within the first couple of months of the new government hangs over the government like the Sword of Damocles. What may be particularly challenging for Modi to tune himself into the system of governance existing in most states across India which more likely than unlikely will not be at the same pace of speed and efficiency of the state of Gujarat. How Modi approaches inflation will be crucial in continuing the confidence of overseas investors who have pumped in over 14,000 crore in Indian stocks so far this month with news on the new BJP government. According to data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) purchased shares worth 84,777 crore and sold equities amounting to 70,553 crore, a net inflow of 14,224 crore rupees from May 2-23. At the same time, foreign investors have infused a net amount of 12,037 crore rupees in the debt market.
Given the decisive political mandate, analysts believe that Indian markets have the potential to get more inflows. The way things stand India is at a crossroad.
The Nehru model of governance is giving way to a corporate way of governance.
Modi himself has said he will prefer a’ lean’ government to work co-hesively with.
And if one were to read the signs, the wise thing to do in the “Modi Wave” is to learn the ride the wave, and hope that it will take the country as far as it possibly can.
Because waves too are vulnerable to the depth of water which when it becomes more shallow, causes friction to build up and speed up compared to areas in the middle of the ocean with great depths and end in a crash.
