Finally, there is good news for the Indian economy. After a long gap, the manufacturing index has registered growth. In the month of April, the index had touched its nadir. In August, it first showed signs of improvement and in September it touched 56.8 mark which is the highest during the last eight and a half years. If it remains above 50 in the index, it signifies growth and if it falls below 50 it signals contraction. But this is not the only good news from the economic front. GST collection has exceeded INR 95 thousand crore, which is 9,000 crore more than the previous month. Automobile sector has also registered growth during the same period after a lull since 2019. Sales of Maruti, Hyundai, and Tata Motors have increased. Furthermore, after six months of contraction, Indian export has registered a growth of 5.27 per cent. Sensing impending economic turnaround, Sensex also rose to 38 thousand mark from 36 thousand mark. In all, Indian economy is showing signs of regaining its lost rhythm. Some renowned economists have already expressed hope that very soon recession would be a matter of the past, investors have been advised not to be bothered about returns; salaried class should not be worried about pay cuts and more importantly there will be no dearth of work in the unorganised sector too. All these will help India to register double-digit growth, the economists suggest. They further argued that Indian economy should not be compared with other economies of the world, as it has unique characteristics and resilience power to meet any challenges. At the same time, it is also argued that Indian economy does not always follow the rules of economic theory, developed in the West. While in crisis, it had made its own way to remain vibrant.
In contrast, a number of other renowned economic stalwarts are not entirely optimistic about the future of Indian economy. According to them, the turnaround will take some more time and till then Indians will have to struggle with lower profits, pay cuts and job loss. In regard to various indexes showing growth, they opined that such a rise was expected after the unlocking process started and with festival season knocking at the door. The said experts pointed out that for nearly six months people were only concerned with their wellbeing. So, they did not indulge in buying sprees or spending lavishly for purposes other than survival. Now, with the situation improving, people are coming out and satisfying their aspirations. This is not a reliable sign of revival of demand, they argue that rather, job creation is a sure indicator of economic revival, and thus expressed their inability to read much into the present figures. They are of the view that to ensure job creation, the government should allocate funds for infrastructure. Hopefully the government will pay heed to this suggestion. If the government does so, we can expect a boom in the infrastructure sector that will allow Indian economy to roar once again.
