Although the morale of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has had a considerable boost with the conditional bail granted to Arvind Kejriwal by the Supreme Court, political observers are still unsure about its effect on the poll outcome. The Delhi electorate has showcased a peculiar pattern while exercising their franchise in different elections over the last few years. While AAP has won two consecutive assembly elections with a thumping majority in Delhi, the party is yet to win a single parliamentary seat in the two general elections it contested since inception. Through this fact, it becomes amply clear that the electorate in the national capital holds different views while choosing their representatives for the Lok Sabha and the state assembly. Since 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has remained the only choice of Delhiites for the parliamentary polls, which is evident from the fact that the party managed to win all seven seats in Delhi in two successive general elections. On the other hand, AAP has managed to achieve a similar feat by winning assembly elections twice in a row by defeating mighty BJP. Thus it is apparent that the so-called ‘Kejri factor’ has not played an important part in earlier general elections and its rivals are hopeful that this time too it will be no different.
BJP appears determined to keep its all-win record in the parliamentary elections intact in Delhi. Sensing that anti-incumbency may be a hurdle in its way, the party dropped Union minister Meenakshi Lekhi from its list of candidates and has given nomination to Bansuri Swaraj, daughter of the late Sushma Swaraj, undoubtedly the most popular female face of BJP from the prestigious New Delhi constituency. Furthermore, the party is trying to take advantage of internal feuds within other parties by keeping its doors open. The saffron brigade has managed to snatch several Congress leaders including DPCC president Arvinder Singh Lovely, along with APP’s lone MP from Punjab Sushil Kumar Rinku among others. Moreover, the party is always a formidable side due to its dedicated and disciplined cadre base.
However, apart from playing the sympathy card, AAP is banking on another factor to upset the calculations of BJP in Delhi. This time burying the hatchet, AAP and the Congress have forged an alliance, as they anticipate to benefit from each other’s vote share. But the fact remains that together these parties got little over 40 per cent of the total votes polled in the 2019 elections, while BJP’s vote share was 56 per cent. AAP is hopeful that in the absence of any clear wave in favour of the ruling party at the Centre, the gap in vote share can be easily bridged, despite strong dissents over the candidature of Kanhaiya Kumar and Udit Raj from grassroots workers. The party is confident that such dissents will disappear when Kejriwal starts campaigning in favour of the alliance candidates. The question of which electoral party will triumph will be clear only after counting is over on 4 June 2024.
