Eastern Mirror Desk
Dimapur, June 2: Monsoon rains are likely to arrive in the country’s southern coast on June 6, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
“At present, monsoon has covered some extreme southern part of Arabian Sea and parts of southwest-southeast-east central Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman Nicobar islands. In the next two-three days, it’ll cover more parts of the Arabian sea,” head of the cyclone division IMD, Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, told the news agency ANI.
The IMD in its second early forecast has claimed that it will be a normal monsoon but northwest India and northeast India are expected to have less than normal rains. It added that ‘rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2019 southwest monsoon season is most likely to be normal.’
The Long Period Average (LPA) of 96 is expected for the whole country which is the bottom of the scale (96 to 104). In northwest India, rainfall is expected to be 94% and 91% in the northeast. Rainfall is expected to be 100% in central India and 97% in peninsular India.
In the table below, the IMD defines normal (or average) rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the country’s 50-year average (1951-2000) of 89 centimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June. It is categorised as below normal if the LPA is between 90-96%. The rainfall is deficient, if it is below the 90-96%. Anything above 110% of the LPA is classified as excess.
The northwest India subdivision of the IMD covers the entire north India, while the central India subdivision encompasses states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh.
The east and northeast India subdivision covers states of West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and the entire northeast; while the southern peninsula covers the five states of the south and the Union Territory of Puducherry.
“The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 95% of its LPA during July and 99% of LPA during August,” it stated.
The IMD’s region-wise forecast is in contrast to what Skymet had predicted earlier this month.
East and northeast subdivision will get 92% of the LPA and risk remains high for Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, while it will be marginal for Northeast India, Skymet had predicted.
Central India is likely to receive rainfall of 91% of the LPA and rainfall in Vidarbha, Marathwada, west Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat will be “poorer than normal,” according to Skymet.
Northwest India is likely to receive 96% rainfall of the LPA, while the south peninsula could receive 95% of the LPA, it had informed.
With waters in dams hitting low levels, several parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu are witnessing drought-like situation. If monsoon fails in these areas, it will further aggravate the situation in these states.
Meanwhile, the IMD has also predicted “thunderstorm activity will continue for next 3-5 days over north-eastern states and over extreme southern peninsula.”
