The Congress party registered a much needed solid victory in the recently concluded Karnataka state elections. However, despite the win in Karnataka, the Congress party remains far from challenging the BJP government in Delhi. While the win in Karnataka is a positive step, the fate of the Congress depends on its performance in the upcoming polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The task of winning in these states will be challenging for the Congress, as in two of the three states it is the incumbent party, while it suffered an embarrassing collapse in Madhya Pradesh. Unlike Karnataka, the party will have to deal with anti-incumbency factors and the loss of essential leadership in these three states. Considering how important anti-incumbency was in the Karnataka election, it is evident that the Congress will have to put in extra effort to woo the electorate of these states for the second consecutive time.
More importantly, the Congress organisation seems to be in disarray as fierce infighting has considerably weakened the party in these election-bound states. In Rajasthan the party has been virtually divided into two. Moreover the efforts of the party high command to ensure a truce between the two warring sides have failed to make any progress thus far. The failure to quell the feud has earned a bad name for the party as it is hampering smooth functioning of the government. The Chief Minister seems too preoccupied in keeping his flock together, and is not focused on good governance, making the electorate disenchanted with the present regime which may have a negative impact on poll results. Moreover, the Rajasthan electorate, like its Kerala counterpart, prefers to change governments every five years. So a congress win would come as a surprise to many. The situation remains the same in Chhattisgarh as, similar to Rajasthan; the party has been plagued by infighting which has allowed for a growing sentiment of anti-incumbency. The situation in Madhya Pradesh remains even worse as the party has already lost its government along with many prominent leaders due to infighting and is yet to recover from it.
So, the Congress should not be over-euphoric over the Karnataka outcome as the state was never a BJP bastion like Gujarat. It should be noted that in the last three Assembly elections in the state, BJP lost two and emerged as the single largest party only once. It managed to capture power in Karnataka after managing a large-scale defection from the Congress. Thus, the theory that the defeat in Karnataka indicates that the saffron party’s waning influence in Delhi too, does not hold any ground. Rather, the fact is that in two successive general elections, the same Karnataka electorate whole-heartedly supported BJP even after expressing a different choice in Assembly elections. It is a definite morale-boosting win for the Congress party as after a long-time it managed to defeat the BJP in a major state. However, the party will have to repeat the feat again and again against BJP in all forthcoming elections to pose a serious challenge to the BJP in the 2024 general elections.
