President’s Rule has been revoked in Manipur, followed by installation of a popular government but risk remains with the root cause of ethnic conflict not been addressed.
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The second term of the BJP-led state government in Manipur from 2022 has witnessed a series of missteps—from the emulation of Yogi-style bulldozer demolitions to ethnic conflict and the arming of civilians. Lawlessness prevailed, warranting President’s Rule, and under it, détente was ushered in with a semblance of peace. Yet beneath the calm surface lie strong undercurrents unseen by many, as people await the end of one year of President’s Rule. Could the installation of a popular state government without addressing the root cause of conflict—of political and developmental equity—be another misstep? The outcome of a public rally by the Zo (Chin–Kuki–Mizo) ethnic group in three districts on 6th February 2026 will set the political tone for the few months to come.
Political pundits may have congratulated themselves for devising a formula of pacification by allocating one Deputy Chief Minister’s post each to the Nagas and the Kukis. However, they appear to have missed the undercurrents among the general public that have remained dormant under President’s Rule. The message from the Zo (Chin–Kuki–Mizo) ethnic group is clear: this is not about the spoils of politics or the gain of a Deputy CM chair. It is about ordinary people who have suffered and are waiting for a political settlement—not political positions for their MLAs. A political solution could have begun with something as modest as hints of amenability for anything within the state of Manipur, including the granting of Sixth Schedule status, even against the demand for separate administration. Such a step, though small, could have served as a meaningful signal to initiate dialogue.
The Kukis have searched for a homeland since the time their migration into the North Eastern region began. The Lushai—later called the Mizo—secured a mountainous homeland known as the Lushai Hills, which eventually became Mizoram, evolving from a district of Assam to a Union Territory and then a full-fledged state. However, other tribal groups living in Manipur’s Churachandpur district were not included in the peace settlement under the Mizoram Accord. This situation is reminiscent of the outcome of the 16-Point Agreement that created the state of Nagaland for the Naga people living in the Naga Hills and Tuensang Area in Assam and NEFA. That agreement left out Nagas living outside the present Nagaland state but offered hope for future consolidation under Point 13. This mistake of “hope” was not repeated under the Mizoram Accord. Yet, in the ethnic cauldron of the North East—where conquest and assimilation by kingdoms did not occur in the mountainous regions except through administrative systems and the rule of law introduced by British colonialism—the key to resolving identity conflicts may still lie in future consolidation of major ethnic groups under Article 3 of the Constitution, a goal that has eluded both the Nagas and the Mizo brethren so far.
The search for a homeland among the Zo (Chin–Kuki–Mizo) ethnic group has been elusive, partly due to their nomadic past. The politics of divide and rule in Manipur led to the creation of a district, Kangpokpi, largely to pacify the Kukis. The brutal conflict between the Meiteis and the Zo people in May 2023, their eviction from Imphal, and the political rhetoric that followed intensified the estrangement and fired the imagination of the Kuki people for a Union Territory with a legislature. Falling prey to the lure of a Deputy CM chair by one of their MLAs—and the likely participation of a few more in the new state government without any clear articulation of political gains—has been perceived by the Zo people as a betrayal by their political class. For the Meitei community, however, the installation of a popular government has been viewed as a success.
The initial days of managing the evolving situation will dictate the future of the popular government. The fear of intra-tribal conflict among the Zo people is a growing concern, as it could spill into other areas and drag the entire state into renewed turmoil. So far, Manipur’s politics has revolved around the ethnic conflict between the Meitei community and the Zo people, with the Nagas largely remaining neutral. However, tensions have been simmering in some areas between the Nagas and the Kuki people. These have been contained largely through appeals to Christian brotherhood, but patience is wearing thin, and this could yet become another front of conflict.
The challenges taken up by brave politicians willing to chart the future of Manipur in just about a year before the next general elections may yet prove to be a nightmare for the state rather than a pathway to normalcy. Only time will tell how astutely the Chief Minister and his team handle the fast-evolving situations where the fractures in society are still raw. Before them lies treacherous terrain, and it will be nothing short of a miracle, given the fact that a sizeable number of looted guns remain unrecovered, to keep the state free from violence. The future of Manipur now lies in their hands.
Ngaranmi Shimray
New Delhi