July 2023 is set to be the hottest month on record, scientists say

NEW DELHI — July this year is set to be the hottest month on record with average temperatures exceeding that of July 2019 by a significant margin, according to a new analysis by scientists.

The EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) noted that these temperatures have been related to heatwaves in large parts of North America, Asia and Europe, which along with wildfires in countries including Canada and Greece, have had major impacts on people’s health, the environment and economies.

Data shows that the previous hottest month on record was July 2019.

According to the new analysis, the global mean surface air temperature averaged for the first 23 days of July 2023 was 16.95 degrees Celsius. This is well above the 16.63 degrees recorded for the full month of July 2019, which is currently the warmest July and warmest month on record.

At this stage, the report said, it is virtually certain that the full monthly average temperature for July 2023 will exceed that of July 2019 by a significant margin, making it the warmest July and warmest month on record.

“The extreme weather which has affected many millions of people in July is, unfortunately, the harsh reality of climate change and a foretaste of the future,” said WMO’s Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

“The need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is more urgent than ever before. Climate action is not a luxury but a must,” Taalas said in a statement.

On July 6, the daily average global mean surface air temperature surpassed the record set in August 2016, making it the hottest day on record, with July 5 and July 7 shortly behind, WMO said.

According to the dataset, the global mean surface air temperature reached its highest daily value (17.08 degrees Celsius) on July 6, 2023.

During the first three weeks of July, global mean temperature rise temporarily exceeded the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold above the preindustrial level during the first and third week of the month, according to the report.

Since May, the global average sea surface temperature has been well above previously observed values for the time of the year; contributing to the exceptionally warm July, it said.

WMO consolidates data from C3S and five other international datasets for its climate monitoring activities and its State of the Climate reports.

It predicts that there is a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record and a 66 per cent chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average for at least one of the five years.

“Record-breaking temperatures are part of the trend of drastic increases in global temperatures. Anthropogenic emissions are ultimately the main driver of these rising temperatures,” said Carlo Buontempo, Director of C3S.

“July’s record is unlikely to remain isolated this year, C3S’ seasonal forecasts indicate that over land areas temperatures are likely to be well above average, exceeding the 80th percentile of climatology for the time of year,” Buontempo said in a statement.