While it is important not to underestimate China, any data from Chinese sources, especially government sources, should be regarded sceptically
Share
NEW DELHI — While it is important not to underestimate China, any data from Chinese sources, especially government sources, should be regarded sceptically, a new report has said, adding that it is a mistake to accept official or published Chinese statistics at face value.
China is succeeding in many fields but numbers can be misleading, writes James Lewis, a Distinguished Fellow at Tech Policy programme at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) headquartered in Washington, DC.
“There are places where China is ahead, but fewer than a casual reading might suggest,” he says.
According to the report, China is engaged in a long-running influence campaign to persuade the world of its success.
“China’s government regards more data as ‘state secrets’ than other countries do. Statistics, particularly economic statistics, are often massaged or hidden. In several cases, China has even arrested journalists and researchers for revealing data that other countries would regard as public,” the report mentions.
There is a constant desire to inflate metrics like GDP and to disguise metrics, such as debt levels, that contradict the story that success is inevitable.
“Published data may show that the US has more public debt than China, but this is the result of Chinese obfuscation,” writes Lewis.
The use of number of citations or scientific publications as an indicator of strength also needs to be scrutinised carefully. There is also the question of what the metric asserts it is measuring versus what it is actually measuring.
For example, China’s assertion that its radar could detect stealth aircraft and that the J-20 was a fighter equivalent to F-35 is bogus.
“Recent events in Venezuela and Iran — or the disappearance of the J-20’s designer — suggest this may have been an exaggeration,” the report argues.
China has more high-speed trains, but the US has more passenger airplanes. Similarly, 5G remains a contentious area for measurement. China has done quite well in 5G, but when you look at access to 5G services, the US leads, says the report.