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NEW DELHI — The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that there are high probabilities for the development of El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean during July to September 2023.
El Nino is a weather phenomenon that involves an abnormal warming up of water surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, and tends to suppress monsoon rainfall in India.
[bsa_pro_ad_space id=1]A senior IMD official said that as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon and the weather department is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins.
The IMD said that currently, warm El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal and near El Nino threshold value.
“The latest forecasts from Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) and other global models indicate high probabilities for the El Niño conditions to develop during the middle of the monsoon season and continue till the first quarter of 2024,” said the weather forecast agency.
“In addition to ENSO conditions over Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have also some influence on Indian monsoon. Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts from MMCFS and other global models indicate positive IOD conditions likely to develop during the remaining period of the monsoon season,” it said.
Meanwhile, the weather department also predicted that during July, normal to above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some areas of northwest and peninsular India where below normal maximum temperatures are likely.
The IMD also predicted that the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during July 2023 is most likely to be normal, ranging from 94 to 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a higher probability towards the positive side of the normal range.
“The spatial distribution suggests that central India, along with the adjoining south peninsular and east India regions, are expected to experience normal to above-normal rainfall. Additionally, some areas of Northeast and Northwest India are also likely to receive above-normal rainfall. However, below normal rainfall is anticipated in many areas of northwest, northeast, and southeast peninsular India,” said the IMD official.