Egypt: A coup or the will of the people?

Lars Brozus & Stephan Roll [dropcap]T[/dropcap]he EU should not monitor the Egyptian referendum, but instead push for political inclusion. In July 2013, not only was the government of Mohammed Morsi toppled in a military coup, Egypt’s constitution was also suspended. The Egyptian constitution was adopted a mere seven months prior through a referendum. It was heavily criticized because the Muslim Brotherhood’s opponents saw it as an attempt to integrate theocratic elements into the political system. Now, it is up to Judge Adly Mansour – who is currently Egypt’s interim president under the military leadership – to start a new constitutional process. For that purpose, Mansour nominated a 50-member committee via decree, which developed a draft constitution within three months. The Egyptian population is supposed to vote on this said draft in another referendum on January 14-15.Exclusive Constitutional Process The new draft constitution displays less Islamic traits than the preceding document under Morsi. Civil and women’s rights as well as the rights of selected minorities are partially strengthened. Overall, however, the draft codifies structures which in the past formed the backbone of authoritarian rule. Significantly, the extensive privileges of the state’s security apparatuses are poised to stand in the way of Egypt’s democratization. The Egyptian military will remain a state within the state and will not subordinate itself under democratic control. The expected result and the constitutional process are problematic. The committee’s sessions, led by the former Egyptian foreign minister and secretary-general of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, were closed to the public. A wider societal discussion over the new constitution did not take place. More importantly, the composition of the committee which was dominated by members of state or semi-state institutions was deliberately one-sided. Whereas in 2012 when the Constituent Assembly was dominated by Islamists, this time around they were almost completely excluded. Only one representative of the Salafist al-Nour party, which backed the military coup, and one dissident from the Muslim Brotherhood were part of the committee. Thus, a substantial part of the Egyptian public was not involved in the process of drafting a new constitution. However, those groups who were excluded, especially the ones who voted for the Brotherhood in parliamentary and presidential elections in recent years, are still relevant in Egyptian society. Consequently, even if voter participation and approval for the draft constitution is higher than during Morsi’s 2012 referendum, overall acceptance is likely to be limited. Legitimacy Through International Monitoring? Indeed, the new political leadership in Cairo seems to be aware of this dilemma. That is why it is attempting to reevaluate the process through the permission of international observers. The foreseeable lack of societal legitimacy is supposed to be compensated by the presence of international observers. In 2011, this looked very different. At that time, the ruling military council decided to reject an offer by the European Union (EU) to send a monitoring mission for parliamentary elections. Pointedly, the goal was to demonstrate that Egypt was able manage its political transformation from an authoritarian regime to democracy. This mirrored the Egyptian pride in having ended Hosni Mubarak’s rule without large-scale outside support. The holding of elections promised the highest possible degree of societal legitimacy, which is why the regime passed on permitting an international presence through monitoring. In this context, one has to question the meaningfulness of an international monitoring mission for the upcoming referendum. Even if the voting process is conducted in a free and fair manner, Egypt’s political climate is marked by repression, fear and exclusion. This is a key difference to the situation in which the 2012 constitutional referendum was held. At that time, the Muslim Brotherhood had abused their newly-won state power to mobilize, but there were no comparable mass arrests and police actions that intimated political opponents. The current referendum will definitely not contribute to the inclusion of political forces who were marginalized since Morsi’s ouster. The parties and groups under the umbrella of the Brotherhood-led Anti-Coup Alliance have already announced their planned boycott. Their inclusion should be the main goal of international efforts because, in event of a failure to include all relevant forces of Egyptian society in the process of shaping Egypt’s political future, further polarization and fragmentation are looming. However, sending observers, as announced by the EU, mainly benefits the regime. Instead, the international community should campaign for the release of political prisoners and the abolishment of repressive anti-protest and NGO-laws, as well as the build-up of a free media landscape. Courtesy :Fair Observer