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Usually, there is a lot at stake for the incumbent party or the ruling coalition in elections. But currently, the electoral scenario is just the opposite in Bihar. In the ongoing Assembly elections, the opposition parties are facing a tougher test than the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). It appears that the anti-incumbency factor, revival of old-Yadav-Muslim alliance, unemployment and the plight of migrant labourers, combined together have put NDA on the back foot. But so far, indications are that the parties in opposition have failed to take advantage of the prevailing situation. A good indicator of this fact comes from various poll surveys. Almost all the surveys have predicted a comfortable win for the ruling alliance. If predictions stand correct, it will prove that BJP-JD (U) alliance is still going strong in Bihar. On the other hand, opposition parties will have no one to blame apart from themselves as they will lose a golden opportunity to effect political change in Bihar.
In the beginning, the situation was conducive enough to end the 14-year rule of Nitish Kumar in Bihar. Signs of anti-incumbency were highly evident. Nitish Kumar’s popularity has started showing a downward trend. His handling of Covid-19 pandemic, especially the decision to prevent the migrant labourers from entering Bihar, has been vastly criticised. The Chief Minister’s failure to provide adequate relief to the flood-affected people of 17 districts, has also made him unpopular to a section of the people. Moreover, issues like unemployment, education, law and order, etc. have also cornered the government. Thus, the stage was all set for the opposition parties to exploit the prevailing resentments against the present government to their favour. But, the parties failed to do so. Initially, cracks appeared in their ranks and Dalit leader Jitin Ram Manjhi switched sides just before the poll. Secondly, the tussle over seat sharing among the opposition parties took a long time to be resolved. As a result, the opposition parties could not initiate a sustained campaign against the ruling block. Many believe that the absence of Bihar stalwart Lalu Prasad Yadav has affected the opposition parties most.
Starting from an advantageous position and ending at a disadvantage does not speak well of any person or organisation. If the opposition parties fail to win in Bihar, their role will definitely be put under the scanner as it will have far reaching consequences at the national level too. A win in Bihar will make the BJP-led alliance stronger and create an almost invincible image, while various opposition parties all over the country will feel demoralised. After Bihar, states like West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh will go to polls. The result of the last Bihar Assembly elections had definitely bolstered the confidence of the opposition as following that election, the opposition parties recorded wins in three out of the five states mentioned. NDA win in Bihar will definitely put parties like Congress, CPM and Trinamool Congress on the defensive as these parties will have to confront a more formidable BJP in elections to be held in the near future.