Dollar–rupee to trade in INR 82-84 in second half of FY24: CARE Ratings

CHENNAI — The US dollar-Indian rupee exchange rate will fluctuate between INR 82 and INR 84 during the second half of FY24, CARE Ratings said in a report.

According to the credit rating agency, the rupee breached the INR 83 against a dollar recently, but its decline has been curtailed by interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) across various markets, including the spot, non-deliverable forward (NDF), and futures markets.

“In the second half of the fiscal year 2023-24, we anticipate the USD/INR exchange rate to fluctuate within the range of INR 82 to INR 84, gradually gravitating toward the lower boundary of this range. This projection marks a shift from our prior forecast of INR 81 to INR 83,” CARE Ratings said.

The US Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, communicated during the September meeting, is expected to sustain elevated yields in the US Treasury market and maintain strength in the US Dollar Index (DXY) in the short term.

“However, we anticipate US Treasury yields to moderate subsequently, as the Federal Reserve signals that interest rates have peaked, and as market participants re-evaluate their interest rate expectations when signs of weakness in the US economy become more pronounced in broader economic indicators,” the rating agency said.

The weakness in Chinese Yuan is expected to persist until China unveils substantial stimulus measures, and this is likely to exert downward pressure on the currencies of other emerging Asian markets.

Tight supply conditions are projected to keep oil prices elevated in the near term; nonetheless, CARE Ratings anticipates a moderation in oil prices in the absence of substantial stimulus from China and as pace of economic growth in the United States begins to slow.

India’s current account deficit is forecast to remain manageable in FY24. Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) inflows are poised for recovery, driven by robust economic fundamentals and the eventual moderation of US Treasury yields and the DXY.

“Furthermore, we anticipate that RBI interventions will persist, serving to mitigate rupee volatility and imported inflation,” CARE Rating said.

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