Examining India’s Demographic Patterns

The United Nations (UN) population division has predicted that India will become the most populous nation of the world by 2023, overtaking its northern neighbour China four years earlier than estimated. The UN agency has further revealed that from 1.21 billion as per the 2011 census, India’s population will reach 1.66 billion by 2050. As soon as the figures were announced, contradictory views have started to emerge from various quarters, undermining the importance of this crucial issue. From comments made by either side, it can be deduced that most arguments ignore the basic nuances of demography. Many are simple attempting to use these figures to serve narrow personal interests, rather than studying the numbers to carefully anticipate what the future holds. A study of Indian demographic patterns is necessary to understand whether rising population is a boon or bane for the country.

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Contrary to popular perception, an increase in population is not all bad for a nation, if systematic planning is in place on how to utilise the country’s growing human resources. China is the best example, it has become one of the top nations of the world despite being the most populous country of the world for decades. China has achieved this distinction by meticulously utilising its work force towards nation building. India can also achieve such demographic dividends, if the country prepares in advance to meet future challenges by providing quality education and ensuring that social and economic developments continue to take place. There is nothing to be worried about the tag of the ‘most populous country’, if meticulous planning accompanies it.

Instead, one should be worried about the imbalances prevailing in Indian society, which the population figures have brought to light. For example, population growth is not taking place in the country uniformly; while few states have achieved notable success in controlling the birth rate, some other states have failed to do so. Again, there exists an urban-rural divide in terms of birth rate in the country as the rise of population is much higher in the interior parts of India as compared to cities and towns. So, to achieve a demographic dividend like China, India should take immediate steps to remove social and economic imbalances.

Moreover, the total fertility rate (TFR) which is the average number of children born to a woman, has come down considerably during the last few decades. As per the latest data released by National Health Family Survey (NHFS), India’s TFR stands at 2, which was 6 in the 50’s. TFR figures can be lowered further if states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh take effective steps to control population. The best way to achieve population stability is to ensure speedy economic development as it has been found that population growth is high where economic growth is low and vice versa. Thus, rising population is not a crisis, but a challenge, which can be solved by effectively engaging available human resources.