[dropcap]A[/dropcap] closer analysis of the February 5 confidence vote indicates that there is more than meets the eye. The 59 votes in favour of the motion is actually just eyewash and all the talks of unanimous unity are far from the truth. The NPF led by Noke and Kaito has always maintained that they are not in favour of changing the government but favour a change in leadership and true to their words, they voted in favour of the Government but Noke and Kaito group took the opportunity to reiterate its stand. The BJP which had publicly announced through its high command that they would abstain surprised everyone by also voting in favour of the motion. The talk of the government being in negotiations with the Congress to rescue it was proven right when all eight members of the opposition Congress voted in favour of the Government. It was cold war politics and underhand strategies at its height. While the TR Zeliang government has won with absolute majority, it does not mean that the worries of the DAN Government are well from over. In fact, a new set of problems has just begun.In the aftermath of the confidence vote, fantastic speculations are doing the rounds in political circles. There is talk that the Congress may merge with the NPF and there is equal amount of speculation that the Congress will merge with the BJP. There are also enough indications that the Congress will become part of the government with ministerial inductions and appointment of parliamentary secretaries. Likewise, the BJP is also expecting to bag ministerial and parliamentary secretary berths. Let us not forget the independent MLAs who are all hoping for their pound of flesh. Then there are NPF members who will be expecting upgrades.
Meanwhile, the Noke and Kaito camp remains steadfast.
After all that have been said and done, the question that needs to be asked is who gains and who loses. It is obvious that the biggest loser in this entire episode is the NPF. The only regional party surviving in the State has been damaged beyond imagination at a time when it was at its peak of power and success. The biggest winner is definitely the BJP. The lotus has taken full advantage of the crisis, and with one stroke, the BJP has neutralized the Congress and kept the NPF house divided. To begin with, it was an internal problem of the NPF, which ultimately resulted in all political parties being impacted in significant manner. Today the Congress and the NPF are both divided and the BJP can only gain. The BJP will do everything possible to occupy the vacuum that will be created by the declining power of both the NPF and the Congress.
As for the NPF, both sides are yet to blink. The leaders on both sides need to realise that their division is making the BJP spread its wings. And even if the Congress merges with the BJP or the Congress by itself becomes part of the Government, the NPF is still the loser as the national parties will use the opportunity to consolidate itself. The NPF leaders on both sides of the divide should know best what the need of the hour is. They cannot continue to undermine the mandate of the people nor take it for granted.
