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This time the battle for Delhi is crucial for many reasons. The outcome of the Delhi assembly elections will have far-reaching consequences on Indian politics. Perhaps the fight is limited to only 70 seats, but it is no less as it will provide a prediction of the path that the nation will take in the coming days. The forthcoming election is an acid test both for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Admi Party (AAP), two major contenders for Delhi’s throne. The Congress is also in the fray. But no one should be astonished if the party returns empty handed as they have many times in the recent past. Clearly, Delhi this time will witness a direct contest between the BJP and AAP.
For the BJP a victory in the Delhi assembly polls will not only be sweet revenge, but a step forward towards establishing the party’s hegemony in Indian politics too. Remember, so far the BJP’s track record against formidable regional forces is negligible. As a matter of fact, the BJP’s strike rate in the states, where formidable regional outfits are present, is poor in comparison to its strike rate in states where it had direct fight with the Congress. One should not forget that in 2015, when the BJP’s popularity was at its peak when apart from capturing power at the Centre, the party managed to win assembly polls in Haryana and Jharkhand. It suffered a severe jolt after it managed to win just three seats in the Delhi assembly. Following that debacle in Delhi, the BJP lost Bihar too. This time, the situation has changed. Though the BJP is still in power at the Centre, it has lost Jharkhand and failed to attain majority in both Maharashtra and Haryana. So, attaining majority in Delhi is a big challenge for the BJP.
On the other hand, whatever the AAP claims, it has failed to effect any qualitative change in the state’s administration. Delhi under Arvind Kejriwal is no different than what it was during the Congress regime. The AAP’s main plank was to fight against corruption. It has failed miserably in this aspect. Moreover, Kejriwal’s habit of putting everyone in the dock to hide his government’s failure has not gone down well with the people. Knowing full well that Delhi is not a full-fledged state, Kejriwal was insistent on the demand for full statehood just to keep the issue of mismanagement of his government under the carpet. Moreover, his party is no longer a closely knitted unit. Yogendra Yadav, Prashant Bhushan, and Asutosh etc. all founding members have either left or been expelled from the party. So it is a tough ask for the party to match the performance of 2015. Kejriwal’s only plus point is that during the past five years, he has been able to create his own vote bank by providing various reliefs to slum dwellers and other neglected groups. At the same time, the AAP leader may take little pleasure now that there is no one in the Delhi BJP to match his popularity. This is why he is provoking the BJP to name its chief ministerial candidate. This has become his major election plank.
But a lot of water will flow through the Yamuna before the first ballot is cast. At present, both the parties are unsure about the electorate’s preference. Can the BJP put an end to its losing streak in the assembly polls? Or will the AAP be able to save its citadel from saffron onslaught. The answer will shape India’s political future.