P Vaidyanathan Iyer
[dropcap]I[/dropcap]n the last month or so, the cadres of the four parties that make up Maharashtra’s two long-standing coalitions — the Shiv Sena-BJP and the Congress-NCP — have shown growing support for the idea of a split. Each party seems keen to chart its own course in the state. While this could alter the nature of the state’s politics, this posturing is largely bravado in the run up to the assembly elections, less than a month away. It can only damage the prospects of all parties. This is especially significant for the Congress and the BJP. Given the results of the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP sees these polls as its best chance to come back to power in the state. But it cannot afford to contest on its own. The Congress, on the other hand, cannot risk repeating its Lok Sabha debacle in Maharashtra. The fundamentals of coalition politics and realpolitik will not allow the two alliances to split easily, even if they indulge in brinkmanship today.Let us try to understand the reasons behind the sudden clamour for a split. Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray does not go thunderously on the offensive like his late father, Balasaheb Thackeray. His version of the so-called Sena aggression was not to respond to the BJP state leadership’s demands on seat sharing till late on Thursday. He stuck to his final offer to the BJP — 119 seats out of a total of 288 in the state legislative assembly. Uddhav chose to ignore the “Narendra Modi wave” that had won the alliance 42 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state, never mind if the BJP felt “insulted “ by his attitude. He was also emboldened by the results of the Uttar Pradesh bypolls, in which the BJP got a drubbing. The BJP, for its part, feels it has had enough. And it is true that when a party does not field a candidate in a particular seat for 20-25 years, its presence and clout diminishes. Moreover, its loyal cadres do not have much to look forward to, since coalition dharma dictates that the party cannot contest seats allotted to its partner. This perhaps rankles even more because the BJP had a better strike rate than the Sena in the Lok Sabha polls — 23 out of 26 seats compared to the Sena’s 18 out of 22.
It is the Congress-NCP camp that is keenly waiting for the news of a Sena-BJP split. This would allow it greater flexibility in choosing post-poll partners. Within the Congress-NCP alliance, demands for a separation are fuelled not so much by seat-sharing wrangles as by an inherent mistrust between the two parties. The young and brash leadership of the NCP, spearheaded by Ajit Pawar, nephew of Sharad Pawar, sees the Congress as a liability, unable to take bold decisions. Indeed, many in the Congress share this view. In its attempt to clean up, the party may have been cleaned out, said a senior Congress leader, alluding to Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan, known for his honest image. The junior Pawar, who is a sort of hero among the NCP’s youth cadre in Marathwada, is said to have cultivated about 150 seats in the state, from where the NCP can field a candidate and be a strong contender. The Congress knows this, and fears that the NCP will seek a new ally after the polls. And the Congress cadre would want exactly that — good riddance if ties are severed, many feel, since several NCP leaders have been accused of massive corruption.
Unfortunately, none of these reasons to push for a split takes into account the winnability factor in elections. The Sena’s aggressive posturing is aimed at getting more seats and, perhaps, a chief ministership for Uddhav. If it wins more seats, the CM’s post will naturally come its way. Its worry is the strike rate, where it may be bested by the BJP. That is why the Sena is so reluctant to cede more seats. Yet, the BJP is ideologically closest to the Sena, offering it an avenue for acceptability beyond Mumbai. The Sena is strongest in Mumbai because of its notable Marathi bias, but an association with the BJP gives it greater state-wide appeal. The BJP is also acutely aware that the Sena is crucial to its chances of clawing its way back to power in the state. However desperate the BJP may be to spread itself across the state, now is not the best time. Two-thirds of Maharashtra is rural, and with its aggressive youth cadre, the Sena can get people out to vote. Besides, in Vidarbha and some other rural districts, the BJP has never had a strong presence. It may trot out the 2014 Lok Sabha results, but it is aware that those results might have been unique.
Many in the Congress and the NCP concede that this time round, it’s a battle to form a respectable opposition. While the Congress high command has said it would prefer an alliance with the NCP for the assembly elections, it has left it to the state leadership to take a final call. Taking a decision to split will require the state leadership to introduce new faces. Dropping sitting MLAs and organising the logistics to field a large number of candidates from new seats calls for a dynamism that the state leadership lacks today. Moreover, Western Maharashtra and Marathwada are seen as NCP-dominated belts. If the results of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections were mapped against the assembly segments, the Congress-NCP alliance would be leading in just 41 of the total 288 seats. NCP chief Sharad Pawar, who has been a strong votary of the alliance, realises the import of this more than anyone else in the party. In going with the Congress, Pawar also hopes to keep the party’s secular credentials intact. The NCP’s best bet is a four-cornered contest, but the BJP-Sena decision to suffer each other in these assembly polls has put paid to such a prospect.
In both the alliances, the partners complement each other. A split would jeopardise each party’s chances of winning. But then, a four-cornered fight would be a reality check for the parties — they would likely end up bruising their respective allies and regrouping after the elections.
Courtesy: Indian Express
