Every year the nation hopes for a normal monsoon to ensure a good harvest, which largely determines the health of the country’s economy. In this context, the prediction of a good monsoon despite the El Nino phenomenon by the Indian meteorological department (IMD) will definitely come as a relief, especially, as unseasonal rain and unprecedented heat waves have already affected Rabi (winter) crop production in the country. According to a recent estimate, India’s wheat production may go down considerably which in turn may force India to import this food grain, putting extra burden on the country’s exchequer. So in order to avoid such a situation during the forthcoming harvesting season, we must prepare a contingency plan to meet any eventuality.
Normally, India gets 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during monsoon, which is very crucial for the country’s economic well-being. Despite the advancements made by the agricultural sector in India, it unfortunately remains dependent on a strong monsoon season. This dependence is a major cause of volatility in the Indian economy. A good monsoon means a stronger economy relative to a year where monsoon is erratic. This is obviously far from an ideal situation. Furthermore this is also the reason why the contribution of the agriculture sector to the country’s GDP has always remained low. India has not been able to change the scenario as its agriculture sector is devoid of modern technologies as well as adequate irrigation facilities, despite 54 per cent of the country’s workforce being engaged in fields. Poor return in agriculture is forcing many youths from farmers’ family to give up the age-old profession practiced by their forefathers threatening to cause irreparable damage to the country’s food security.
The nation should act with urgency as there are instances of weather predictions going wrong, causing immense hardships to people. Moreover, the private weather predictor Skymet has already predicted below normal rainfall in India this monsoon. So one should not rely solely on IMD forecasts; but rather gather as much information as possible from multiple sources to estimate which way the wind will blow this monsoon. As there is still time before the arrival of the rainy season, we should use this period judiciously. First and foremost the nation must take effective steps to protect farmers’ interest. An emergency plan should be prepared to compensate them adequately in case of a poor monsoon. Additionally, irrigation facilities should be strengthened to make water available for agriculture. If the rain does not adequately grace the subcontinent this monsoon, we may see an exodus of people from rural to urban areas. Alternative means of livelihood should be made available to farmers, so that they are not required to leave their homes. Such plans will help reduce the impact of a poor monsoon and help prepare the nation to face any eventuality.
