Dimapur and Its Crowds!

An analysis of crowd counting, and its estimation in Dimapur

By Reyivolü Rhakho, Muzhaba Jamir, and Haichikambe Pame | EMN All around the world crowd counting is always dicey affair. The difficulty is in balancing variable claims and counter claims about the number of people at a given event.  A much-publicised instance is the crowd that attended the inauguration of US President Donald Trump in 2017. Officials did not give out specific numbers but claimed that the event drew ‘one of the biggest crowds’ to witness the inauguration. The media and other crowd science experts however disputed the claimed numbers stating that it was only one-third of the crowd that attended Obama’s inauguration in 2009 — believed to have been attended by 1.8 million people. Nagaland is no different when it comes to exaggerating crowd numbers. Number claims during protest rallies and election campaigns are made based on assumptions that are mostly incorrect. It is a fact that getting a definite number of a crowd is not easy. However, numbers based on random assumptions can only lead to errors. For example, there have been claims by organisations about the number of people to a crowd: A political party once claimed that 42,000 supporters attended a rally in Dimapur, while another organisation claimed a whooping 65,000 people at a protest rally in Dimapur, both in 2017. There is always a tendency by organisations to exaggerate numbers in the media to leverage a support base. On the other hand, the media in Nagaland has resigned to the fact that there is no practicable scientific means to attest to or disprove the claimed numbers. It can only relay the numbers as claimed by event organisers. Perception may be a factor too for low-population states like Nagaland where crowds are rare. Consequently, people may simply accept the claimed numbers without doubt or debate. To substantiate this theory: The census of 1961 has the total population of Nagaland at only 3, 69,200 persons. It was only during the census of 1991 that Nagaland crossed the 10 lakh mark. Even that too is supposed to be exaggerated because double enumeration was alleged apparently for political reasons especially in the villages across Nagaland. So, even a crowd of 5,000 seems tremendous for the people. In the rest of the country, crowd estimation is more realistic. For a big musical concert a crowd of 30,000 is good attendance, while sports events like the IPL and ISL bring a crowd of around 60,000 on the higher side. A field study was conducted for a week by Eastern Mirror to address crowd counting impediments and influence correct reporting. At the end of the study, the team came to a conclusion with bringing to light some drastic changes to the way crowds are estimated in the state. The study was able to bust some myths related to crowd estimation. It also has suggested a number of realistic ways to count crowds in Nagaland. The crowd counting study was based on Dimapur, and framed on four types of space-occupation: The scenarios took into account cramped and loose settings. The reason is that crowd numbers generally vary, which leads to varying proximity between two persons or spacing among chairs. [caption id="attachment_198534" align="aligncenter" width="565"] [/caption] The main gallery of the Dimapur District Sports Council (DDSC) stadium measures about without the curved section. The seating area has concrete steps. The length of the top step, which is the is about end-to-end. The way to the gallery’s seating area is by three flights of steps, a large one in the middle measuring and two smaller ones, measuring at each sides of the gallery. The roof of the gallery is supported by each of which occupiesground area, each of which adds to loss of space. After dividing the gallery into sections for measurement, the average space taken by a person was also calculated based on space that local persons of different body masses may occupy. On an average, three different body masses occupy about of length to sit comfortably. If they are sitting closely to one another, sitting in a congested arrangement, they would occupy an average of . So of space would be occupied by a person in a loose seating arrangement while, a person will occupy about of space in a tight arrangement The results indicate that the first of the gallery can accommodate approximately if they are seated closely and about in a loose comfortable seating arrangement. The two steps, one on which the pillars stand, and the step just next to it, would accommodate about sitting tightly and about loosely seated. The other may accommodate about if comfortably seated and aboutif they are seated tightly. The curved area of the gallery at either end has , totalling to a length of at the top. The length gradually decreases with an approximate length of with every step. The bottom first stair measures in length. Therefore, the curved gallery can accommodate about sitting loosely and when sitting tightly. The , which measures about in length till the bend of the gallery, may also accommodate a single line of persons behind those seated below. About to standing sideways may be accommodated if a standing person occupies not more than of area. All the sections of the gallery added: The results show that it might accommodate around when loosely seated and about when seated tightly within safe limits. An estimate of more standing persons and some sitting in the landing areas show that the gallery of the DSSC stadium may accommodate approximately at maximum — a number that is markedly different from what was being believed. [caption id="attachment_198535" align="aligncenter" width="565"] [/caption] The number of stairs in the state football stadium is comparatively fewer to that at the DDSC stadium. There are sets of galleries adjacent to each other. Both the galleries consist of each with slight variation in length. The gallery measures about in length, while the other isThe total of gives a total length of and respectively. Taking the same averages used at the calculations at DDSC stadium, the state stadium’s gallery can accommodate about in a loose sitting, and in a tight sitting. On the higher side, the number can be safely assumed to about at minimum and about at the maximum. [caption id="attachment_198543" align="aligncenter" width="565"] [/caption] To measure the area occupied by chairs, a sample of chairs such as the ones used by a rental firm AKA tent house in Dimapur was used. It was found that to accommodate in rows of each, the area needed is about or per in loose arrangement. In a very tight congested arrangement of the same in rows of , the area it would require is approximately orperAn area of in length was kept between chairs to include a scenario of loose seating; and for tight seating. Further, two scenarios were constructed to explain how many chairs would accommodate an area that is a popularly chosen setting for events. [caption id="attachment_198544" align="aligncenter" width="565"] [/caption] In the first scenario, an area of rectangular, enclosed space was assumed as the size of a regular tent measures .  An area covered by at one end of the rectangle was subtracted to accommodate a stage area and space between the stage and the first row of chairs. A gangway of between the rows of chairs was again subtracted for the whole length of the rectangle Therefore, the effective remaining area is , giving an area of . The rest of the area can therefore accommodate approximately that are loosely place and that are placed tighter. In the second scenario, the same rectangular enclosure of was considered but fully this time without any loss of space for stages. The same gangway of between two columns of rows of chairs was considered . The effective remaining area where chairs can be set is of spaceWhen the same average area covered by a chair ( and ) is considered, it can accommodate about in a spacious setting and a maximum of in a tight setting. Many rallies in Dimapur and in Nagaland held in the open usually have people who stand. Unlike the methods used for spaces where there are designated seating areas, counting crowds who are in open spaces require photographic evidences. The entire area of study can then be sub-divided into smaller squares. This might ensure almost near accurate counting. According to Prof. Dr. G Kieth Still, author of 'Introduction to Crowd Science,’ the ‘upper safe limit’ for standing crowds is maximum standing in an area of . The in the metric scale converts to in the imperial scale. The imperial scale is the measurement used popularly in land measurements in Nagaland. In other words, in the recommended upper safe limit a person might occupy is about . [caption id="attachment_198545" align="aligncenter" width="565"] [/caption] A case study for a standing crowd was undertaken by assessing it with a photograph that was taken at a rally that was held in Dimapur a few years ago. ) The road in the picture is the Circular Road starting from Clock Tower to Holy Cross School. An area of about was scaled out using real marking points on the street. It was found out that there were around on the higher side. It can be safely assumed that around people occupied a space of This is short from the assumed upper safe limit probably because of the warm climatic conditions of Dimapur. In other words, a person at a rally in Dimapur uses about to stand, according to assessment from photographs of rallies. Therefore, assuming that measurements from the previous instance would continue i.e., the area taken by a person standing according to the safe upper limit, a of space may accommodate maximum . In Dimapur, the same space would be filled only by . [caption id="attachment_198546" align="aligncenter" width="565"] [/caption] For the second case study, the stretch of road at Clock Tower starting from Big Bazaar to the Eastern Mirror office was selected. The total area that it covers, according to Google Map, was . Based on the findings, in this space approximately can be accommodated for a usual Dimapur crowd but on the higher side. Likewise, a stretch of was selected for Tajen Ao Road. The area is about . After being calculated on averages it was found that the area can accommodate about for the usual Dimapur crowd, and on the higher side. Further, a length of of the I Vikeshe Sema Road was selected. It covers an area of about . It can accommodate about and on the higher side. If the total area of covering the three roads is considered, the space would be filled by approximately with comfortable space between each person. If the upper limit of five persons in a square metre is calculated, the same space may accommodate approximately .