It’s time to think about the future of opinion and exit polls in India, as more often than not such polls have been found incorrect, and in the process, create a lot of confusion among the electorate. For instance, during the recent Assembly elections in Haryana, several opinion polls had predicted a clear majority for the Congress, ruling out a third term for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The outcome of the opinion polls found resonance in the exit polls too, which also gave the throne to the Congress. None of the polls were able to give a slightest hint about the spectacular comeback of the BJP in the state, defeating all odds by winning a record number of seats. Similarly, in Kashmir too, polls failed to predict the rise of the National Conference (NC) and instead predicted more seats for regional outfits. This was not the first instance. If we look back at the recent past, both the pre-poll and post-poll forecasts predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the last general elections. But in reality, NDA could barely manage to get a majority, conceding a lot of seats to the opposition parties, which has changed the political mosaic of the country to a large extent.
This trend has triggered a heated debate within the political circles over the continuance of such polls, while Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar has virtually slammed exit polls for jumping the gun. He has raised questions about the methodology of exit polls and asked for the sample size along with other parameters polling companies follow while predicting the outcome of the polls. From CEC’s statement, it is understandable that the EC is aghast with such polls, hinting at the possibility of imposing restrictions if corrective measures are not taken at the earliest. Rajiv Kumar has given enough hints that the EC is sensing some foul play in the mad race to predict the outcome even before the counting of votes begins. As a matter of fact, predicting the poll outcome correctly is almost next to impossible in a vast and diverse country like India, where different states and regions think divergently about their choices. People from Kashmir and Kanyakumari may have different views about the party they choose to rule the country. It seems like the so-called psephologists had failed to feel the pulse of the people properly in their eagerness to predict the outcome of the polls, and thus invariably cross the thin line between accuracy and sensationalism. However, election, which decides the fate of the nation, is not a child’s play. Giving credence to speculations not only harms the democratic process but also becomes manipulative. Such trends are dangerous for a democracy as it will only erode the people’s confidence towards the electoral system. It’s time to restrain those who cause irreparable damage to our democracy.
