The presidential race in the United States of America appears too close to call even 72 days before the finish line. While elections in the USA have always fascinated scholars of global politics, the 2024 election holds increased significance, not only for global politics, but also for the USA’s standing within it. From the period between end of the cold war in 1991 and the recession in 2008, the USA was the hegemonic global power with the ability to affect events far away. Unfortunately for the USA since the 2008 recession (the root cause of which originated from within the country), its global influence has waned drastically. Most analysts have attributed the relative weakening of the US economy to the rise of China, European Union and India as economic and military powers in recent years. The popular argument has been that due to the rising influence of the new powers the USA has had to take a more collaborative approach. Added to this has been the fact that the decline of the USA has also seen the decline of its allies Japan and South Korea. While these factors may be true they do not entirely explain the USA’s reduced global influence.
It can be argued that the reason for the USA’s decline in the global arena has been a by-product of the polarised political discourse that has characterised these elections. Often the current polarisation in American politics is attributed to the rise of Donald Trump, a political outsider, who does not shy away from polarising narratives to advance his own political agendas, but, a closer reading of American politics would highlight the fact that this polarisation has been allowed to fester by Trump’s successor. In the current election cycle America seems to be cleanly divided into two camps. The first led by Kamala Harris which stresses on multiculturalism and gender rights and the second led by Donald Trump whose campaign leans towards various right wing ideals. This is nothing new as the Republican Party has been right winged since the regime of President Bush in the early 2000s.
A Democratic win would mean a potential expansion of healthcare access through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and an increased focus on environmental regulations and initiatives to combat climate change. There will likely be a push for greater social equity and reforms in education for increased inclusivity and increased taxes on higher incomes and corporations. Whereas a Republican win would likely lead to a repeal of the ACA, with reduction in federal involvement on healthcare and more market based solutions, and a roll back on climate regulations. Stricter immigration controls and revision of criminal justice and education policies is expected. Potential tax cuts and policies aimed at stimulating investment and economic growth is likely. The actual impact of the elections would depend on the agenda of the elected officials, and the political climate of the time. Whichever way the American people decide to vote, the new president has an uphill climb ahead with its weakening economy, internal civil divide, several overseas battles, and the rise of upcoming markets to name but a few challenges.
