Indicator of India’s Political Future

After the festive season, India will enter election season with an assembly election in Himachal Pradesh on November 12. This will be followed by polls in states like Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in a very short span of time. Undoubtedly, elections for the state assemblies will set the tone for the crucial 2024 general election. The forthcoming assembly elections may shed some light on whether the opposition parties will be able to halt the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) juggernaut in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Furthermore, the elections will also indicate whether the Congress will be able to regain some of its lost ground as all these states will see a direct contest between the grand old party of Indian politics and the BJP. So, these elections are not only crucial for the respective states, but will also hint on the future political course that the country will take.

The assumption is that BJP is far ahead in the race and set to retain all states under the party’s rule at present. At the same time, the saffron brigade is leaving no stone unturned to win Chhattisgarh, which had witnessed a change of guard after being under BJP rule for 15 years. Already, the party has launched a massive election campaign in all these states with a number of central leaders visiting the states frequently to suggest ways for strengthening the organisation along with increasing public contact. It must be noted that over the years, BJP has established a well-oiled election machinery that has helped the party to cross many stiff hurdles easily. However, BJP’s best bet is Narendra Modi as he has left all his rivals far behind in popularity. Modi and a strong organisational set up together has made BJP almost invincible in poll battles. The success of the party since the 2014 general elections stands as a testimony to this fact. So, it will not be easy for the opposition to make a dent in BJP’s citadel.

On the other hand, the mass base of the Congress party has significantly eroded since 2014 and it urgently needs to prevent any further down slide as that will put a very serious question mark on its very existence. Definitely, the Congress will have to improve its electoral performance to remain relevant in Indian politics. Congress leaders are hopeful that the recent organisational poll in which a non-Gandhi has been elected as the party president and the Bharat Jodo Yatra undertaken by Rahul Gandhi will help the party to turn the tide this time. Moreover, they believe that the party will benefit from the anti-incumbency factor and the failure of the ruling party to ensure sustainable development. But poor organisation may prove to be a bane as it is the prerequisite for a good electoral show. So, while BJP is the hot favourite to retain its hold, the Congress’s biggest challenge is to build an effective election machinery to stay afloat in the country’s political scene.